Biggest Day In Music of 2009...But Who Will Win?

On November 23rd, five of pop's biggest stars will release their new albums and each star has a lot to lose. So, over the next few weeks I will make a prediction on where each star will stand when their albums debut stateside. I begin today with Rihanna.

RIHANNA RATED R: What's at stake: Following Good Girl Gone Bad, her career high, Rihanna seemed on the verge of icon status. Her squeaky clean image, countless hit singles, muscularly perfect body, and starbound talented boyfriend made her easily the new millennium's star most likely to have a timeless career in the vein of Madonna, Britney, or Janet. She was already one name status. Yet, with one punch her flawless image crashed because of someone else's actions. We saw her as a perfect, powerful, and confident woman but even she suffered from being human. The attention has shifted from her music to her personal life. Rihanna is set to release her third album. Historically, if an artist's third album falters a tiny bit from previous records, their career is over. This is her True Blue, Born in the USA, Bad, and Fan Mail. This is the most important album of her career. Will she be Brandy or Janet? It's up to 11/23 to decide.

For her: America still loves her and wants her to succeed. Unlike Lindsey Lohan or Britney Spears, she was not in control of her recent scandal. She did not ask for it. Furthermore, no Rihanna lead single has ever flopped or debuted outside of the top 100. Her first single has been in the top five on itunes for several days.

Against her: Unlike Kylie Minogue, who followed her battle with cancer with songs about "Speakerphones" and "2 Hearts," Rihanna's troubles have leaked into her latest singles. Rihanna sings fluffy guilt pleasures, not dark gothic influenced pop songs about guns. "Russian Roulette" met no radio air play and critical disappointment, a rarity in RiRi's career. Her label quickly released another flop and then "Hard," a catchy, but not overwhelmingly memorable club ready jam. It's the end of the decade and unless she delivers she may go the way of the Snuggie.

Where she's likely to land: #2 or #1. If "Russian Roulette" stops slipping down the charts and her 20/20 interview gets people talking, she may barely make it to the top spot. However, if Adam Lambert's song rises and Lady Gaga's buzz continues, she may join Tiffany and the Pet Rock as relics of the past. 2010 is on the horizon and she could easily be left in the era of the cellphone.